Thailand is the 9th most visited destination for travellers around the world, with roughly 40million visitors annually, a number which has been growing steadily for many years.
The tourism industry has provided abundant opportunities for jobs and cultural exchange for local Thais, and contributes roughly 10-20% of the country’s GDP depending on what year is referenced.
Covid-19 situation
But now, with the restrictions on international travel due to the various Covid-19 mitigation plans in place all around the world, Thailand has seen a 74.6% drop in inbound travel in the month of March yoy, with further similar numbers to be published for the following months. The Thai Tourism Authority estimating, that for the year 2020, the total number of tourist could be as low as one third of previous years, down to 14 million only.
Trouble ahead
As many as 3 million people from the tourism industry in Thailand will lose their jobs in Q1 and Q2 of 2020. With many businesses forced to close due to Covid-19 restrictions and lock measures, a number of these businesses will never open again.
OTA
Nearly every major OTA globally has announced furlongs to staff or layoffs. Agoda, a major player in Thailand, has this week, announced the layoff of 1,500 people globally. Many affected are those in the client facing and hotel facing business units. If you are looking for highly skilled and productive people then you’ll find a number of them here on the Agoda Talent Directory.
The NESCD’s Secretary General Dr. Tosaporn Sirisamphan has announced this week, estimates that the Thai economy will shrink by 5-6% for the full year 2020
What Next?
The NESCD’s Secretary General Dr. Tosaporn Sirisamphan has announced this week, estimates that the Thai economy will shrink by 5-6% for the full year 2020. This, is in part, due to the drop in international visitors, but also due to the expected reduction in demand of exports as the rest of the world gets to grips with Covid-19.
Better Days ahead
A 5-6% reduction would be the worse performance since the 1990’s Asian Financial Crisis, however, it is not a severe as what had been feared given impact of Covid-19. This saving grace is due in part to Thailand’s resilient consumer spending economy, which saw a growth in perishable products in Q1 2020, driven by a drive to stock up on household goods. As well as Thailand’s growing middle class, whose consumption demands have grown rapidly in recent years.
Covid-19 lock down lifted
As of today, 25th May 2020, Thailand has had 4 days with 0 new Covid-19 cases. The number of deaths from Covid-19 is one of the lowest in the world (57 deceased). And nearly every business type has been allowed to open up again, leading to a gradual up tick in consumer activity.
Adding to this uptick is the fact that counties close to Thailand such as Chain, South Korea, and New Zealand have also managed to bring their Covid-19 situation under control, and are also easing restrictions. We are looking at a carefully managed rebound in economic activity, which should soon translate to international travel activity given a little more time.
Never again
It is worth noting that this may be the only time, in our life times, that an economic shock of this reach and magnitude will happen due to a viral outbreak. South Korea managed Covid-19 so well, in part due to the experience it had with the MERS outbreak in 2012, when it was the country with the largest outbreak globally. As a result, South Korea was this time, better prepared, with mass testing, contact tracing, and a population wide consensus on adopting and adhering to preventative activities such as social distancing and self-quarantine, taken up from the very outset, there by allowing the country to continue to operate without a major lockdown.
Like South Korea after 2012, the rest of world in 2020, will now be better prepared for this kind of viral respiratory outbreak. Many countries now understand the need to enforce social distancing, the benefits of using contact tracing, the importance of having the right protective equipment in place, and the need for strong governmental direction in tackling a future pandemic.
Conclusion
The recovery is taking place all around Thailand, we are better prepared for a future pandemic, which will not have such a sever impact on the country or its global neighbours.